Beijing Still Hazy !!

Reuters reported today, "Beijing still hazy with three days to go".

This is after a series of control measures in place, like shutting down half of the 3+ million cars and more 200 most polluting industries in the city.

The hazy reports are based on the pictorial evidence and the air pollution index (API) published by the Beijing pollution bureau. This API is based on two main pollutants - particulates and ozone, besides the sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, which are also integral part of the particulates and ozone formation.

Here is a report saying "Cars are not enough". An article on April 16th, 2007, "Improving Air Quality for 2008 Beijing Olympics" states that the problem with Beijing air lies, not entirely with the vehicular emissions, since the ozone (dependent on NOx and VOC emissions) is one of the key elements for haze formation. These articles argue that, "the VOCs from small factories, emissions from heavy vehicles (trucks) are worst during the night, since trucks are banned from the city during the day. Studies have shown that Beijing's pollution levels are highest in the early morning, due to early morning ozone formation dependent on NOx and VOC emissions during the night. This would not be the case if most of the pollution came from passenger cars, which operate mainly during the day. But it is good evidence that the chief sources of pollution are the VOC-producing factories and trucks operating at night."

Here is a report by Science Daily on July 17th, 2008, which argues that it's more to do with the meteorology than shutting down industries in the city. The percentage contributions are unknown, but the industries with their large chimneys contribute more to outside Beijing than inside, and similarly, the industries in the vicinity of the Beijing (such as Tainjin, Shijiazhuang, and Taiyuan, all of which fall with in 100 km) are more important and probably contributing to the pollution levels of Beijing. At the end, it is a borderline case between meteorology and shutting down industries within Beijing.

See my blog on July 31st, with news articles reporting the (then) latest on interventions in place for clear skies for the 2008 Olympic games.

• Wired on August 7th, 2008, "Beijing Leads in Race for Most Polluted Olympics"
• Wall Street Journal on July 17th, 2008, "China Uses Games to Showcase Gains in Energy Efficiency"
• Comparison - 1984 LA vs. 2008 Beijing Air Quality
• BBC on August 7th, 2008, "Beijing Pollution Efforts Hailed"
• BBC on August 8th, 2008, "Beijing is Ready for the Games"
  

Transportation Policies & Strategies for Urban India

The Ministry of Urban Development of India, published in May, 2008, the "Study on Traffic and Transportation Policies and Strategies in Urban Areas in India".

The report covers current status and trends in urban transportation for 30 cities and presents an analysis of various indices covering vehicular growth, congestion, walkability, safety, public transport, and infrastructure (see Table 5.11).

Analytical work of interest are the relationships of various indices with reference to city population, a forecast of growth rates, and their affect on future urban transportation investment needs.

Full Report
Executive Summary

Also see

• National Urban Transport Policy by MoUD
  
• National Auto Fuel Policy of India by GoI
  
• Public Transportation in India by ITDP
• Transport for Livable Cities: A Symposium on the Problems of Urban Transport (Seminar, November, 2007)
• Reducing Air Pollution from Urban Transport by the World Bank
• Reducing Vehicle Emissions in Asia by Asian Development Bank
• EE and CC Considerations for On-Road Transport in Asia by Asian Development Bank
  

CDM for Large Power Generation Projects?

In India Together in July, 2008, Mr. Shripad Dharmadhikary reports, "most hydro power projects don't need the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) credits to be built. But a gross mockery is being made of the basic principles and understanding of the Kyoto Protocol, with no real cuts in emissions."

This article summarizes the CDM mechanism and its application in India, focusing on the hydro power projects, and questions the logic behind awarding large sums of carbon finance to projects that are already under construction or completed construction. And why hydro, which is already carbon neutral, when compared to the thermal power plants coming into production?

Do large power generation projects need carbon finance support for completion? Is this in violation of additionality clause, that CDM will support those projects, which otherwise would not come into being. The amount of finances involved in the power plant construction and O&M, in some cases, the CDM accounts for peanuts. Then, why the fancy for CDM in every project?

There is also an approved methodology for new thermal power plants (ACM0013) - "Consolidated baseline and monitoring methodology for new grid connected fossil fuel fired power plants using a less GHG intensive technology".

When a new power plant is commissioned, isn't it logical to use the best technology that pollutes less - locally and globally? Then why introduce a methodology for new plants as an incentive. There are other approved methodologies for existing power plants, which result in increasing the efficiency of the boilers by co-generation, replacement with better boilers, saving heat losses, or even adding incinerators (for waste, etc). These seem OK.

The author quotes, "As a result of such distortions, a mechanism that is in any case fundamentally flawed is being further discredited with blatant misuse and abuse." and "The person who anyway always walked, is asking to be paid saying he walked behind the bus and saved money"

Also see

• UNFCCC approved methodologies
• CDM Bazaar
  

Better Air Quality (BAQ) Workshop

The 5th Better Air Quality (BAQ) workshop organized by the Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities will take place this year in Bangkok, Thailand, on November 12, 13, and 14, 2008. This is the largest air quality focused workshop in Asia.

See www.baq2008.org for details on program and registration.

This year’s theme “Air Quality and Climate Change: scaling up win-win solutions for Asia” is a reflection of two important trends that are shaping the future direction of urban air quality management in Asia.

Previous workshops were held in Hong Kong (2002), Manila, Phillipines (2003), Agra, India (2004), and Jogjakarta, Indonesia (2006).

What a Waste?

Key air pollutants include particulate matter (PM), sulfur dioxide (SO2), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), lead (Pb), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3), and ozone (O3) (an important secondary pollutant formed due to the chemical interaction of the various pollutants mentioned above).

Fossil fuel combustion (e.g., combustion for domestic cooking and heating, power generation, industrial processes, and motor vehicles) is typically a major source of air pollution. In addition, the burning of biomass such as firewood, agricultural and animal waste contributes a large proportion of the pollution in some urban areas, and these traditional sources are often neglected (and difficult to estimate) through emission inventories.

Among many of the sources of air pollution, one important non-traditional source is the burning of household and industrial waste, though prohibited by law. There are regular incidences of waste burning (following the road sweeping or in the residential corridors where all the waste gets accumulated or even at the landfills) and is a common sight among the developing country cities and rural areas. Some of the direct emissions, such as PM and other toxic substances, depending on the mix of the waste, are hard to quantify and is accompanied by a large uncertainty when dealing with estimation of contribution garbage burning to the ambient air quality.

1. Tyre burning in Kathmandu (Photo from Clean Air Network, Nepal) 2. Roadside burning of trash collected in Hyderabad, India (Photo by Dr. Gertler, DRI) and 3. Roadside fugitive burning in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

There is no one solution for this problem. As uncertain the the source is, the solutions are as wide from household to the industrial sector. At least, in case of the industries, there are set norms for waste management and how the waste is recycled or reused. However, in case of the households, the main solution is having a proper waste management program. Though, most of the cities management proper landfills and garbage collection programs, a substantial amount of the garbage ends up along the roadside collection bins and gets burnt. The burning could partly be because of the collection agency or the roadside sweepers, which/who might find burning the waste as an easier and faster way of getting rid the source.

Before we go after the institutional settings and how the garbage collection system and landfills operate, one should focus on the source itself and how to reduce the waste entering the collection bins. If the focus is on the household sector, the garbage can be better used or re-used in multiple ways and sharing here some information in doing the same.

For the biomass (e.g., vegetables and other biodegradable substances), best solution is composting and use the product in the gardens. See: www.dailydump.org for details how to use traditional pottery for waste management in the house (operated out of Bangalore, India). More on composting methods is detailed @ Journey to Forever.

See the movie "Garbage, the revolution starts at home" and read more at their website.

A good overview of Recycle and Waste is presented by Dept. of Environment Food and Rural Affairs, UK, here.

One of the most recycled material is paper, and the demand for waste paper is high and an article reviewing this demand is presented in Science Daily (July 16th, 2007).

Environmental Performance Index (EPI)

Any methodology to quantify the state of the environment at national level is never an easy task. The Environmental Performance Index (EPI) is developed by staff at the Yale and Columbia Universities, in collaboration with a number of agencies and individuals (listed on their website)

EPI 2008 Press Release:
The Environmental Performance Index has been released at a press conference at the World Economic Forum in Davos, on Wednesday, January 23 at 3:00 pm local time in the Congress Hall Press Centre. Professor Dan Esty, one of the EPI’s lead authors, discussed the 2008 EPI rankings and analysis.

This is an indicator covers a wide range of sectors and the programs are rated for their performance in each sector. Details on the weights for various parameters and the methodology is available here.

The report ranks 149 countries on 25 indicators tracked across six established policy categories: Environmental Health, Air Pollution, Water Resources, Biodiversity and Habitat, Productive Natural Resources, and Climate Change. The EPI identifies broadly-accepted targets for environmental performance and measures how close each country comes to these goals. As a quantitative gauge of pollution control and natural resource management results, the Index provides a powerful tool for improving policy making and shifting environmental decision making onto firmer analytic foundations.

Among the 149 countries ranked, Switzerland ranks first and India @ 120th.

CARMA - Carbon Monitoring for Action

I saw this website "CARMA - Carbon Monitoring for Action" in 2007 and since it was made public, the databases, information sharing, and the presentation has improved and changed.

From the website:
"At its core, Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA) is a massive database containing information on the carbon emissions of over 50,000 power plants and 4,000 power companies worldwide. Power generation accounts for 40% of all carbon emissions in the United States and about one-quarter of global emissions. CARMA is the first global inventory of a major, emissions-producing sector of the economy.

CARMA also aggregates data on individual plants to the level of operating companies, parent corporations, and several geographic entities (continents, countries, states/provinces, and cities worldwide, with additional reports for U.S. metro areas, congressional districts, and counties). The database is updated quarterly to reflect changes in ownership, construction, renovation, planned expansions, and plant retirements. CARMA is meant to be a repository of the best available information on power sector carbon emissions."

According to the website, India currently emits 583 million tons of CO2 from 2,147 power plants, of which 377 are tagged as red alerts, producing 597 million MWh of electricity. Readers can also download (and analyze individually), the database of the power plants, along with fuel consumption (by type) and power generation capacity for each country.

Dr. David Wheeler, Senior Fellow at Center for Global Development, announced recently that the CARMA 2.0 will be released later this summer, with improved methodologies for CO2 calculations and better geographical database.

Working paper by Wheeler et al., on CARMA calculations and methodology is available @ "Calculating CARMA: Global Estimation of CO2 Emissions from the Power Sector"

It's All About Carbon - Cartoon Series on NPR

In Inconvenient Truth, the movie, I have seen some innovative and a new trend in presentation style - a mix of cartoon and live action clips to make the best of the information available to us and take the message of climate crisis to the masses.

A 101 version, explaining the process of global warming and the role of carbon dioxide is now available as a five part cartoon series "Global Warming: It's all about carbon" at NPR's Climate Connection page, developed by Robert Krulwich.

Episode 1: It's all about carbon
Episode 2: Making carbon bonds
Episode 3: Breaking carbon bonds
Episode 4: Carbon in love
Episode 5: What do we do?

This is good educational material.

Why "Simplicity Sells"?

David Pogue, is the New York Times Columnist, often seen writing on technology, software, and new tools in the markets. Below is link to his presentation at TED series in 2006 on "Why Simplicity Sells". This presentation is more on the emerging technologies (some might find it more focused on PC and Mac) and simple modifications to the existing or new tools, can be more ergonomic.

One viewer commented on Daivd Pogue's presentation saying - ".. answering to the question 'What is essential?' is the same thinking about what people need. For the majority of users, that would be simplicity... we want software that allows us to do things in a minimum of steps and find things quickly. In that sense, yes, simplicity sells. A lot."

*****

The topic of our interest is the air pollution and management. This has never been a "simpler" task to crack. The air pollution modeling is the key step to better understand the local pollution sources, their emission strengths, and the potential to control the emissions for better ambient air quality and human health. I am not restricting this discussion to one pollutant, but in general the information and modeling of any of the pollutants (PM, SO2, NOx, CO, VOCs, or any of the GHGs) and their detrimental affects on human health is critical to sound and comprehensive pollution management plan for any city.

In order to make informed choices amongst the bewildering array of options, the city managers need to be able to analyze these options from an environmental, economic, social, and political economy viewpoint. All this requires flexible analysis frameworks to evaluate options as they emerge, which, in turn, need substantial quantities of relevant information on various aspects of air quality and characteristics of management options.

A number of tools (with varying degree of complexities) have been developed to analyze air pollution and benefits of management options. There are many institutions, all over the world, that have developed many useful models to simulate various parts of the air pollution modeling cycle. Of course, it would be excellent for all cities to develop a detailed knowledge base and have a working version of all the key appropriate models. However, there are a number of problems in the developing world. These include problems with:

• All Existing models are usually very data hungry, “super-specialized”, expensive, and inflexible to the context of developing countries (a summary of existing models is presented in this article)
  
• Environmental agencies in the developing cities are often young, with inadequate skills, interaction, and capacity (for example, most agencies function as a regulator instead of decision maker, which consumes most of the man power for compliance analysis instead of knowledge base development)
  
• Institutional problems are very common in the developing world (very initial public, bureaucratic, and political interest in environment and with competing demands for scarce financial resources; Decision-making is often ad-hoc and crisis-driven and there is often little time to develop a suite of high-end models for a bewildering array of options)
• Often detailed studies undertaken on a few parameters without a feel for how important these parameters are in the larger picture
• Updated relevant database that is accessible and of the required quality and consistency

Without undermining the importance of the existing models and the knowledge they share from the applications around the world, there is a need to develop simple and interactive tools for air quality management. The simplicity of a fundamental equation in developing the emissions inventory and evaluating their impact on the ambient air and human health, is still the basis for many of the cities in the developing world. Key is to establish a simple baseline to compare the future scenario or what can be done to improve the existing. Once a baseline is established, it will be a lot easier to complicate and further conduct detailed analysis on each of the parameters or under each of the emission sectors.

The SIM-air analytical tool "Simple Interactive Model for Better Air Quality" would aim to use the best available information and educated guesses to arrive at approximate “first-cut" estimates of key parameters (e.g. emissions from various sources based on logical criteria) and simulate the essence of interactions among emissions, dispersion, impacts and management options in an economic context.

Until a better understanding is established between "What is needed" and "What is available" to conduct air pollution analysis, yes, "Simplicity Sells". I think, most of the groups are still battling with "what is needed", instead of utilizing "what is available" to make that "first-cut".

Mobile Signals to Identify Congestion Zones

Recently, a company based in Bangalore, the Mapunity, partnered with India's largest cell phone network, Bharti Airtel, to gain access to records of every transaction on its system. Main goal of this venture was to devise solutions to urban traffic, at least qualitative real-time messages to inform the passengers on urban congestion levels and possible alternatives to avoid idling.

Methodology: Cell phones constantly relay data to local towers, even when they're not in use, so Mapunity can track the location of as many as 3 million (per city) in real time, giving the company a minute-by-minute snapshot of the city's traffic. When too many people crowd a given intersection, a red dot shows up on a map posted on the company's website. This information is also accessible by phone using designated codes for various junctions.


Traffic Information Systems are currently available for
1. Bangalore
2. Delhi
3. Hyderabad
4. Pune

It is important to note that this information service is not telling us how many people are on the road, but providing us with an indicator for traffic density along the corridors, in real time. Sometimes the corridors are congested not because of the number of cars or motorcycles on the road, but due to poor traffic management.

I think this is very innovative approach (as part of the intelligent transportation systems (ITS), see this article on ITS efforts in India) to use the mobile signals to track congestion and use that information, to guide the traffic flows via better traffic light coordination or inform the passengers before they plan their road trip (even saving 10 mins and idling on the road, means fuel saved and less air pollution to worry about).

At the institutional level, this information is very valuable in designating the congested vs non-congested corridors; which might help better coordinate bus service, where available and necessary. The information gathered, irrespective of the uncertainties involved (such as, this service using only one mobile network, not being able to fully differentiate between signals along the road with vendors or concentrated signals in a bus at a junction, some of which can be avoided over an average period) will provide qualitative assessment of the traffic flows in the city, information of rush hours, traffic speeds, and (over time) a database of information to analyze the traffic patterns for better urban planning.

An overview of possible interventions under ITS is available as part of the GTZ's Sustainable Transport Source Book Section 4E.

Four Equations for Vehicular Emissions Inventory

A number of studies, in developed and developing countries, apportioning the sources of air pollution put the transport sector atop – both from direct exhaust and indirect road dust. Increasing number of vehicles on the road mean emissions will increase, air quality will only get worse; fuel use will go up, and instead of moving ahead, people will actually grind to a stop due to congestion, unless a series of actions are in place to not only control the traffic, but also improve the technology to control emissions.

For any decision to stand trial, it is important that it is based on some level of information and most of the developing country cities, lack the capacity to build a baseline. A variety of models are available in the market, with varying level of complexities, which allow cities to develop their inventory. Depending on the model, the data requirements could be intensive; only delaying the process of building a baseline. Figure (to the left) presents the common parameters used for vehicular emissions inventory development

A report explaining four ways to estimate emissions from vehicular activity in a city, using commonly available data with local authorities, is available for download @ www.urbanemissions.info. Note that this is not being proposed as an alternative to existing models, nor to undermine the integrity of the established models.

The four methods are
1. Using number of vehicles and kilometers traveled
2. Fuel consumption by vehicular mode
3. Passenger trips by mode and passenger kilometers traveled
4. Particulate pollution source apportionment

Figure below illustrates the four equations.


Each of the equations has their advantages and disadvantages in estimating the emissions. Depending on the available data, user can choose to utilize the best.

(authors interpretation)

This exercise is meant to jump start the analytical process by highlighting types of data required and how an inventory could possibility be built. Readers can also access example toolkits (VAPIS 1.01) to play with these equations and better understand possible complications

Using Ballons to Visualize Air Pollution

The air pollution index (API) is either presented as a number or as a color representing "excellent" to "worse" API in the city or part of the city, depending on the resolution of the analysis. And most often, this number is displayed on a website or on a bulletin board or played during a news broadcast, which most people might miss to notice.

The Aérophile balloon is the first of its kind and employs an innovative color-changing system to broadcast the API message in Paris, France.

This is an innovative and can't-miss direct public awareness technique to display air pollution levels in a city.

Details @ www.inhabitant.com

Air Pollution in Beijing, China

The air pollution index (API) runs from zero to 500 and divided in categories of "excellent" to "heavily polluted". Readings below 100 are generally considered safe. More details on API, methodology, and an application for US region is available @ Air-NOW program

An archive of API for Beijing, China, from 2004 to current is presented along with a WSJ article here

Similar efforts are underway to forecast air pollution in Beijing, China, in preparation for 2008 Olympic Games. A daily 3-day forecast of the main pollutants - particulates, sulfur oxides, and nitrogen oxides in Beijing is presented @ http://www.beijingairquality.cn. Last week, this link was public, but now requires a login and password. Lets hope that this information will be open again.

Some interesting articles and links below

by TIME (May, 2008) - Airing out Beijing
by BBC (July 16th, 2008) - Beijing Pollution - facts and figures
by Science Daily (July 17th, 2008) - Outlook for Air Quality in Beijing is Borderline
by Science Daily (July 24th, 2008) - During Olympics, Cornell Scientists Will Study Air Quality in Beijing
by Wall Street Journal (July 29th, 2008) - Beijing Considers New Curbs for Air Pollution Reduction
by NY Times (July 29th, 2008) - In Beijing, Blue Skies Prove Hard to Achieve
by Guardian (UK) (July 29th, 2008) - Olympics Environment
by China Daily (July 30th, 2008) - Haze Doesn't Mean Poor Air Quality
by CNN (July 31st, 2008) - China Announces Emergency Pollution Plan
by Reuters (July 31st, 2008) - Confusing "Blue Skies"

Beijing Air Quality Measures by Phase

A compilation of air pollution news and information for 2008 Beijing Olympics is available @ Clean Air Iniative for Asian Cities