SIM-air Model for Air Pollution Analysis in Three More Cities in India

From the UNEP-LCMP program news letter - August, 2013

In 2011, the World Health Organization (WHO), presented air quality data for particulate pollution in 1100 cities, and listed 27 cities from India as amongst the top 100 cities with the worst air quality. For most cities in India (and in Asia), the transport sector is identified as one of the leading causes of premature mortality and increasing number of morbidity cases.

Among the transport indicators evaluated for the development of Low-carbon Comprehensive Mobility Plans (LCMPs), and following a stakeholder consultation process, it was determined that urban air quality should be included as one of the city level indicators in the project. These indicators will be studied within the current year, based on the data collected from the surveys, and also used to account for future business as usual projections and low carbon scenarios (with projections up to 2050).

Passenger travel patterns; city infrastructure; and transport planning models were all important aspects of producing geo-referenced information on travel demand across the city. This is a rich information dataset, which can be very useful as input for transport emissions modeling and urban air quality analysis. The urban transport information database also included results and information on technology transitions related to vehicle efficiencies and the carbon intensity of electricity, adapted from scenario studies conducted at the national level.

The SIM-air family of tools was utilised within the project, resulting in estimates of key parameters, such as total emissions (other than the road transport emissions calculated under the LCMP project), and consequently allow for the simulation of the interactions between emissions, pollution dispersion, impacts, and management options in an environmental and economic context.

Participants from LCMP SIM-air tools training

The SIM-air family of tools are integrated, free, plug & play in nature; they also benefit from being modular, where the user can breakdown the tools to individual components (by sectors) to evaluate the emissions and the pollution control interventions.

These tools were previously applied for studying air quality management in various cities in Asia. Within the scope of the project, the SIM-air model will be used in three cities – Rajkot (State: Gujarat), Vishakhapatnam (State: Andhra Pradesh) and Udaipur (State: Rajasthan); and training on its use was also provided to consultants from the three cities in March 2013, in New Delhi, India.

Application of SIM-air Family of Tools for Air Quality Analysis in Six Indian Cities

Published in Atmospheric Environment

Abstract

A prerequisite to an air quality management plan for a city is some idea of the main sources of pollution and their contributions for a city. This paper presents the results of an application of the SIM-air modeling tool in six Indian cities – Pune, Chennai, Indore, Ahmedabad, Surat, and Rajkot. Using existing and publicly available data, we put together a baseline of multi-pollutant emissions for each of the cities and then calculate concentrations, health impacts, and model alternative scenarios for 2020. The measured annual PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 micron meter) concentrations in μg/m3 averaged 94.7 ± 45.4 in Pune, 73.1 ± 33.7 in Chennai, 118.8 ± 44.3 in Indore, 94.0 ± 20.4 in Ahmedabad, 89.4 ± 12.1 in Surat, and 105.0 ± 25.6 in Rajkot, all exceeding the annual standard of 60 μg/m3. The PM10 inventory in tons/year for the year 2010 of 38,400 in Pune, 50,200 in Chennai, 18,600 in Indore, 31,900 in Ahmedabad, 20,000 in Surat, and 14,000 in Rajkot, is further spatially segregated into 1 km grids and includes all known sources such as transport, road dust, residential, power plants, industries (including the brick kilns), waste burning, and diesel generator sets. We use the ATMoS chemical transport model to validate the emissions inventory and estimate an annual premature mortality due to particulate pollution of 15,200 for the year 2010 for the six cities. Of the estimated 21,400 premature deaths in the six cities in 2020, we estimate that implementation of the six interventions in the transport and brick kiln sectors, can potentially save 5870 lives (27%) annually and result in an annual reduction of 16.8 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions in the six cities.

Air Pollution in Rajkot City, Gujarat, India

Rajkot breathes easy compared to Ahmedabad and Surat in Gujarat State
A study finds that PM10 emissions in Rajkot are significantly lower compared to the other two cities in Gujarat - DNA Correspondent.
Published in DNA India, February 16th, 2012

One would think that Rajkot, the hub of small and medium industries (SMEs) in Gujarat, would be highly polluted. Interestingly, the level of PM10 emissions in the city are far lower than in Ahmedabad and Surat.

PM10 emissions refer to pollutants that emit particulate matter of less than 10 micrometers in size (PM10). This surprising trend was revealed after a study titled 'Urban Air Pollution and Co-benefits Analysis in India' published recently for six Indian cities - Ahmedabad, Surat, Rajkot, Pune, Indore and Chennai.

Of these cities three are from Gujarat, and of these Rajkot accounts for the least PM10 emissions. The PM10 emission for the year 2010 for Rajkot was 14,000 ton compared to 19,950 ton and 35,100 ton for Surat and Ahmedabad respectively.

The study conducted by UrbanEmissions.Info a Delhi-based research group, also found that the mortality per ton of PM10 was also the least in Rajkot (0.02) across all the six cities. It was 0.06 for Surat and 0.14 for Ahmedabad.

However, Sarath Guttikunda, founder of UrbanEmissions.Info, has a word of caution. "Even though the PM10 emissions in Rajkot are lower compared to other cities, it in no way means that the concentration of pollution is less in the city," said Guttikunda.

On why Rajkot scored better on other counts compared to the rest of the five cities, Guttikunda said it is because it is a small city viz-a-viz Ahmedabad or Surat.

"Surat and Ahmedabad have large industries and the fleet of vehicles is larger. While Rajkot may have a higher concentration of SMEs, vehicles on roads are less compared to other cities," he said.

"Hence when you say the estimated premature death in Rajkot, going by the PM10 level is 300, it is indeed less compared to Ahmedabad (4950) and Surat (1250). But one should also remember that the population for these cities is different and the figures should be seen viz-a-viz the population and not in isolation," said Guttikunda.

He further said that the city may see a rise in PM10 emissions if number of vehicles continues to rise and efforts are not put in to reduce emissions by other means.