Getting Odd-Even Right - Lessons from Beijing, Paris, and London

We know by now that air pollution is not a standalone problem in a city but is essentially a symptom of inadequate planning. Policymakers can implement one-off solutions against air pollution but the best short-term results are possible only when they are fully implemented with no exemptions. One example is Beijing during the 2008 Olympics. Based on satellite observations, and during the two months when stringent restrictions were in place, the levels of nitrogen dioxide resulting from fossil fuel combustion plunged nearly 50% and the levels of carbon monoxide fell by almost 20%. The measures were good at quickly lowering the pollution but since they weren’t addressing the root problem, they could do nothing once the stay order was lifted. The battle against air pollution in Beijing recently led to an announcement of ‘anti-smog police force‘ and an expenditure of $2.6 billion to bring back clear sky days to the city.

The measures introduced in Beijing have become somewhat of landmark examples to achieve quick mitigations. These include a 50% cap on vehicles everyday based on the registrations, full support from the public transport sector, shutdown of industries and power plants within a radius of 100 km for at least a month before the games began and a strict enforcement of a ban on burning coal and biomass for cooking and heating. It was a matter of national pride; every citizen in the city chipped in to make sure the sky was blue and the air was clear.

The most talked about scenario is the 50% cap – a.k.a. the odd-even program. Key features that led to the program’s success were limiting the exemptions to emergency vehicles, thousands of number plate recognition cameras to aide traffic police and a wide network of railways and roads to take on the additional load. This was a proactive measure, knowing that air quality during the games would be bad but had to be better.

In 2016, the Delhi government played with the odd-even theme twice, for two weeks each in January and April, with a lot of exemptions and even a temporary increase in public transport capacity. Neither pilot pointed to a clear reduction in pollution. The reasons are plenty: the share of pollution from other sources is equally significant; the prevalent weather brought down pollution from the fires in Uttarakhand and there is limited information to statistically argue for success. General reports showed lesser congestion, faster speeds on the road and 13% more daily revenue for the Delhi Transport Corporation.

In December, 2016, Paris also implemented an odd-even program, in advance, due to an anticipated red alert for the city, and to make the program a success, made all public transport modes free. Their biggest advantage is that transport is their only big source of pollution in the city, followed by coal and wood burning for heating purposes, which means cutting down the traffic by 50% and a wide media campaign to alert people to not burn coal or wood, but use electricity for heating, gives them immediate benefits.

Read more on this @ the WIRE

Delhi's Graded Responsibility Action Plan (GRAP)

Delhi is in the middle of its worst air pollution episode in 20 years, which led for the first time in its history to close thousands of schools for more than three days. In December 2016, Delhi proposed the Graded Responsibility Action Plan (GRAP), a series of measures to call under poor, very poor, severe and emergency polluting conditions. This was approved by the Supreme Court, giving the Environment Pollution Control Authority (EPCA) the authority to oversee implementation for the National Capital Region (NCR). The highlights of GRAP are (download PDF):

• For moderate to poor conditions, with concentrations ranging between 61 and 120 μg/m3 for PM2.5 and 101 to 350 μg/m3 for PM10, actions include ensuring strict enforcement of controls on garbage burning, brick kilns, power plants, ash ponds, construction sites, fireworks and periodic wet sweeping of roads; vigilance on polluting vehicles, vehicles touting PUC norms and out of state trucks; deploying more traffic police; and posting information on social media
• For very poor conditions, with concentrations ranging between 121 and 250 μg/m3 for PM2.5 and 351 to 430 μg/m3 for PM10, actions include banning diesel generator sets, increasing parking fees, increasing bus services, stopping coal and wood burning at hotels, opening eateries and stationing guards at markets in residential areas; increasing public awareness
• For severe conditions, with concentrations above 250 μg/m3 for PM2.5 and 430 μg/m3 for PM10, actions include shutting down brick kilns, hot-mix plants, stone crushers, Badarpur power plant, intensifying public transport services and wet-sweeping roads more frequently
• For severe and emergency conditions, with concentrations above 300 μg/m3 for PM2.5 and 500 μg/m3 for PM10 for more than 48 hours, actions include closing entry of non-commodity trucks, closing all construction, introduction of odd-even and additional measures as the authority’s see fit.

Read more on how to improve GRAP @ the WIRE

Need Proactive Planning to Avoid Air Pollution Emergencies in Delhi

 

Read the full article @ Times of India

An excerpt from my commentary in the WIRE


All these examples (from Beijing, Paris, and London) and (various) pilots show only one thing: when pollution is bad, we have to be on a higher alert and have to do more than normal. We have to be more informed about the problem in advance and promote programs that avoid, improve, shift, just the way fuel is burnt in the city. For the GRAP program to succeed, two additional activities must be implemented on the ground:

• An immediate increase in the number of continuous air monitoring stations (CAMS) in NCR. The number of stations operational under CPCB, Delhi (13), Faridabad (1), Gurgaon (1), Rohtak (1) and Noida (1 – proposed), are not enough to support the GRAP program. Given the ranges of pollution we have observed in the last decade and the mix of pollution sources in the region, our best guess is that NCR requires as many as 100 CAMS, reporting data on all the criteria-pollutants in real time. If the expansion of CAMS on a short notice is an issue, then the emerging low- and medium-cost sensors for key pollutants like PM2.5 and NO2 must be considered in order to be better informed of ground realities
• A proactive pollution alert system must be in place that will allow EPCA to notify agencies responsible for implementing GRAP at least 48 hours in advance. This goes hand in glove with the previous point – more informed we are about the problem, the more able we will be in avoiding it.

Road Dust in Delhi

@ Hindustan Times -  “The major problem faced by Delhi is of particulate matter,” says Mukesh Sharma, a professor at IIT Kanpur and lead author of a study about the sources of air pollution. The study found that road dust makes up more than 50% of the total PM10 particles, that are 10 micrometres or less in diameter, and about 38% of PM 2.5 particles (that are 2.5 micrometres or less). PM10 and PM2.5 levels in Delhi regularly rise to five the times safety mark. According to the US Environmental Protection Agency road dust is “earthen material or dirt that becomes airborne, primarily by the friction of tires moving on unpaved dirt roads and dust-covered paved roads”. With about 33,198km roads and nearly 97,04,741 registered vehicles, the wheels on the city’s poorly maintained roads grinds up a dust storm.

Also see "what's polluting Delhi"

Infograph - Penetration of Particulate Matter in Our Body

 

@ Camfil_UK

Also see "what can you learn from the chemical composition of particulate matter?" 

More on "how to study particulate matter"

Air Quality in Delhi (daily updates)

This is modeled source contributions to the ambient particulate pollution (PM2.5) in South Delhi district (one of the 14 districts in the National Capital Region (NCR) of Delhi). The calculations are conducted in forecast mode. More NCR district reports @ Delhi Air Quality.Info

• DUST.ERO = wind blown dust from the dry and arid regions, dependent of hourly meteorological conditions
• OPEN.FIRES = open biomass burning (both agricultural lands and forest areas), a seasonal affair linked to dry conditions and agricultural clearing patterns
• TRANS.PASS = contribution of passenger vehicles (2Ws, 3Ws, 4Ws, Taxis, and Buses)
  
• TRANS.FRGT = contribution of freight vehicles (heavy and light trucks, and non-road vehicles)
• RD.DUST = contribution of re-suspended dust on the roads due to vehicle movement and construction activities
• PP.DGS = contribution of power plants and in-situ diesel generator sets
• INDUS = contribution of industrial activities
• HOUS.HLD = contribution of domestic cooking, space heating, water heating, and lighting
• WST.BURN = contribution of open waste burning

• OTHERS = contribution of aviation, shipping, biogenics, etc..

A number of source apportionment studies were conducted in Delhi (more in Delhi than in any of the other Indian cities). We summarized the known particulate pollution source apportionment studies, as an open article, "what's polluting Delhi's air". A snapshot of the shares from one of the studies is presented below.

The modeled particulate pollution in the forecast mode for the next three days is presented, as time series for SO2 and Ozone for the district and as an animation for all PM2.5 covering the modeling domain. Similar animations and daily average concentration maps for all the criteria pollutants are available @ Delhi Air Quality Info

See what is happening at the regional scale, which is conducted as part of the all India air pollution forecasting program, hosted @ https://www.indiaairquality.info. The animation below is from a WRF-CAMx simulation conducted @ 0.25x0.25 degree resolution (approximately, 25km x 25km).

The pollution patterns change every hour and every day, depending on the prevalent meteorological conditions - wind speed, wind direction, temperature, and precipitation. Under windy conditions, most of the emissions get dispersed to farther places; Under rainy conditions, most of the emissions get drained out. Want to see how the weather pattern is holding up for the next three days in Delhi. Check out @ https://www.delhiairquality.info. Below is an animation of the anticipated wind speeds and wind directions from the WRF meteorological model - also used by IMD for their forecasts.

The monitoring data from the DPCC stations reported as an air quality index by AQICN is as follows for one of the stations

Mapping Air Pollution Sources in Ulaanbaatar

Mongolia's capital city of Ulaanbaatar has its share of tourist attractions - Genghis Khan Square, the National Museum, the State Opera and Ballet Theatre. But Ger Community Mapping Center guide Tuguldur Chuluunbaatar wants to highlight a different part of the city; a part that's often ignored. "It's not like an entertainment or tourism tour," our guide Tuguldur Chuluunbaatar says. "It's more like giving people more realistic information about Ulaanbaatar, especially ger area."

Gers, or yurts, are the traditional circular tent homes used throughout Mongolia. In recent years, desertification and harsh winters called "dzuds" in Mongolian have forced thousands of rural Mongolians to pack up their gers and head to Ulaanbaatar in search of work. But the steady influx of people has caused serious environmental problems for the city. Since new urban residents burn coal to heat their yurts, the air quality in Ulaanbaatar has gotten worse than Beijing or Mumbai. In 2016, a nongovernmental organization called the Ger Community Mapping Center started working to get a handle on these problems - through mapping.

Read the full article @ DW

More news and articles on air pollution in Ulaanbaatar

The National Capital Region of Delhi Requires At Least 100 Air Monitors

When pollution is bad, we have to be on a higher alert and have to do more than normal. We have to be more informed about the problem in advance and promote programs that avoid, improve, shift, just the way fuel is burnt in the city. For the GRAP program to succeed, two additional activities must be implemented on the ground:

• An immediate increase in the number of continuous air monitoring stations (CAMS) in NCR. The number of stations operational under CPCB, Delhi (13), Faridabad (1), Gurgaon (1), Rohtak (1) and Noida (1 – proposed), are not enough to support the GRAP program. Given the ranges of pollution we have observed in the last decade and the mix of pollution sources in the region, our best guess is that NCR requires as many as 100 CAMS, reporting data on all the criteria-pollutants in real time. If the expansion of CAMS on a short notice is an issue, then the emerging low- and medium-cost sensors for key pollutants like PM2.5 and NO2 must be considered in order to be better informed of ground realities
• A proactive pollution alert system must be in place that will allow EPCA to notify agencies responsible for implementing GRAP at least 48 hours in advance. This goes hand in glove with the previous point – more informed we are about the problem, the more able we will be in avoiding it.

Read the full article @ the WIRE on how to improve the Graded Responsibility Action Plan (GRAP) for better air quality in Delhi.

Delhi to Get 10 New Monitors in Winter 2017-18

The top court in December last year had asked authorities to install real-time and manual pollution monitoring stations in Delhi, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan to check air quality for the graded response. According to the SC-approved graded action plan, the entire national capital region (NCR) will be treated as one. Authorities and experts have warned that the landlocked city’s air quality cannot improve unless adequate measures are taken in the whole of NCR, which involves territories governed by neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan. Read the full article @ Hindustan Times

Infograph - Comparing AQI Scales for PM2.5

More on the simple tools for air quality analysis @ http://www.urbanemissions.info

TED Talks - Cars Almost Killed Our Cities, But Here's How We Can Bring Them Back

Our cities are making us – and the planet – sick, and the problem lies in the automobile, which has taken over how we live and use space. Thankfully, new technology like autonomous vehicles and 3D printing has opened the door for us to bring our cities back from the brink, says transportation expert and city planner Gabe Klein. But we need to act quickly to ensure cities will be places we want to live.

TED Talks - How to Fight Road Congestion (Case Study of Stockholm)

TED Talks - It's an unfortunate reality in nearly every major city—road congestion, especially during rush hours. Jonas Eliasson reveals how subtly nudging just a small percentage of drivers to stay off major roads can make traffic jams a thing of the past.

Video - A clean 101 Lecture on Global Climate Change

More @ Bozeman Science