Tuesday, January 19, 2010

How to Estimate Transport Modal Shares Using Minimum Information - Case Study of Delhi

This type of assessment is generally based on on-road surveys and statistics of vehicular usage. However, one can also develop an estimate of motorized and non-motorized transport based on a bottom-up analysis of vehicular and population statistics.

In the National Capital Region, the estimated population is 16 million. Lets assume that 35 percent of the population is under-age and non-mobile (for various reasons), which leaves 10.4 million people mobile. If each person makes a back and forth trip, this translates to a total of ~20.8 million trips a day.

In 2010, an estimated number of cars = 1.35 million; 2-wheelers = 1.6 million; 3-wheelers = 80,000; and Buses = 16,000; 10% of the cars are assumed to be operated as taxis.

Say, cars and 2Ws make a back and forth trip; Buses make ~8 trips a day carrying ~40 persons a trip; and 3Ws make ~8 trips a day carrying ~1.5 persons per trip. This translates to 2.43 million trips by cars; 0.54 million trips by taxis; 5.12 million trips by Buses; 3.2 million trips by 2Ws; and 0.96 million trips by 3Ws.

The already operational metro rail in the northern sector carries ~900,000 passengers a day.

This leaves 7.65 million trips by either walking or cycling mode.

In percentages, trip share of cars = 12%; Taxis = 3%; Buses = 25%; 2Ws = 15%; 3Ws = 5%; Metro = 4%; and the Non-motorized transport = 37%

A comparison of modal shares across the world

Also see

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