Published in Atmospheric Environment
Abstract
A prerequisite to an air quality management plan for a city is some idea
of the main sources of pollution and their contributions for a city.
This paper presents the results of an application of the SIM-air
modeling tool in six Indian cities – Pune, Chennai, Indore, Ahmedabad,
Surat, and Rajkot. Using existing and publicly available data, we put
together a baseline of multi-pollutant emissions for each of the cities
and then calculate concentrations, health impacts, and model alternative
scenarios for 2020. The measured annual PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 micron meter) concentrations in μg/m3
averaged 94.7 ± 45.4 in Pune, 73.1 ± 33.7 in Chennai, 118.8 ± 44.3 in
Indore, 94.0 ± 20.4 in Ahmedabad, 89.4 ± 12.1 in Surat, and 105.0 ± 25.6
in Rajkot, all exceeding the annual standard of 60 μg/m3. The PM10 inventory in tons/year for the year 2010 of 38,400 in Pune, 50,200 in
Chennai, 18,600 in Indore, 31,900 in Ahmedabad, 20,000 in Surat, and
14,000 in Rajkot, is further spatially segregated into 1 km grids and
includes all known sources such as transport, road dust, residential,
power plants, industries (including the brick kilns), waste burning, and
diesel generator sets. We use the ATMoS chemical transport model to
validate the emissions inventory and estimate an annual premature
mortality due to particulate pollution of 15,200 for the year 2010 for
the six cities. Of the estimated 21,400 premature deaths in the six
cities in 2020, we estimate that implementation of the six interventions
in the transport and brick kiln sectors, can potentially save 5870
lives (27%) annually and result in an annual reduction of 16.8 million
tons of carbon dioxide emissions in the six cities.
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