Vehicle Ownership & Income Groups, Worldwide 1960 to 2030 (by Joyce Dargay)

This paper is published by Dargay et al., 2007 (NYU) has very interesting insights into the evolution of the vehicle ownership and the income groups across the world.

Abstract: The speed of vehicle ownership expansion in emerging market and developing countries has important implications for transport and environmental policies, as well as the global oil market. The literature remains divided on the issue of whether the vehicle ownership rates will ever catch up to the levels common in the advanced economies. This paper contributes to the debate by building a model that explicitly models the vehicle saturation level as a function of observable country characteristics: urbanization and population density. Our model is estimated on the basis of pooled time-series (1960-2002) and crosssection data for 45 countries that include 75 percent of the world’s population. We project that the total vehicle stock will increase from about 800 million in 2002 to over 2 billion units in 2030. By this time, 56% of the world’s vehicles will be owned by non- OECD countries, compared with 24% in 2002. In particular, China’s vehicle stock will increase nearly twenty-fold, to 390 million in 2030. This fast speed of vehicle ownership expansion implies rapid growth in oil demand.

Other resources

• VAPIS - Vehicular Air Pollution Information System
• 2 Billion Cars by Dan Sperling
  
• World Streets by Eric Britton
• CityFix by World Resources Institute
• Street Films
• Report by Prof. Collin Buchanan from 1960, projecting vehicle ownership for London in 2000 and beyond